10 replies to this topic

[mab01uk]

Extract below from an interesting in-depth article recently published in the Telegraph.

Once-mighty carmaker stares into the abyss as China threatens to devour European industry.
"In its 90th year, VW faces an existential threat. For decades, VW has ridden on the coat-tails of a rising China. The Chinese bought Volkswagens, Audis and Porsches in their millions, swelling the company’s profits and seemingly securing the future. Then the music stopped.
Chinese carmakers came of age, and their cheap and sophisticated electric vehicles blew the Germans away – first in China and now, increasingly, everywhere else. In the past three months, VW’s sales in China have collapsed by more than one third from the same period last year.
All the Germans – BMW, Mercedes, VW Group, including Porsche and Audi – they’re all still trying to find a bottom. The worst is still in front of them, from the standpoint of how much further their sales can shrink.
The combustion engine is rapidly ceding ground to electric vehicles (EVs); the ecosystem is heading offshore; Russian gas has evaporated following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine; and China’s insatiable appetite is increasingly focused on its own domestic brands.
The Chinese have also reinvented the car as a software-defined “smartphone on wheels”. The cutting-edge EV can be constantly updated remotely and includes as standard such features as screens that automatically sync to your mobile, in-car AI assistants and autonomous driving.
The EVs themselves are also far simpler in design than the older combustion engine models. Building cars is getting simpler because they’re taking the power-train out of it. The Americans and Germans all have huge power-train divisions, tens of thousands of engineers who just work on an engine. That disappears in 20 years, maybe even less than that. That entire division, gone.
German carmaker takes four to five years to get a model from conception to production. Its Chinese rivals take 24 to 30 months, at about one third of the cost. Some now pull off the process in under a year.
There may be another potential saviour for VW’s under-used plants. With Germany spending hundreds of billions of extra euros on defence this decade to meet the threat from Russia, carmakers and their suppliers are eyeing an opportunity to switch to military production..."
https://archive.ph/QYUl3

 

[r.tec]

...and VW wanted to produce items for the Israel Iron Dome. But because Quatar is a main share-holder of VW, they have prohibited VW to do so. It was intended to bring work to the Osnabrück plant of VW. Now the workforce there is under threat. Mismanagement has been done for very many years at VW and so for Skoda, Porsche, Audi, Seat, Lamborghini, Moto Guzzi etc.

[Ethel]

We're in no position to judge, but could a company that huge fail nowadays?

 

There's 4 national governments I can think of that would likely step in with a locally manufactured content requirement at least.

[Java_Green]

I share your opinion "Ethel". The problem is that Europe (as far as I know) and probably US cannot compete on same terms. I have been within the car R&D industry on both sides. So, do the Chines take short cuts that jeopardise endurance or safety...? My opinion, is that they do not. In fact, they do a lot right using today's skills, knowledge and technology. And the big advantage is, they don't have a lot of procedures and methods of "how it always have been done"....

[sonikk4]

 Now although the information i saw was on Youtube / social media, several chinese built cars suffer badly from rust from very very early on.

 

Having being an owner of VAG cars for the best part of two decades, their build quality has been extremely good especially with regards to corrosion issues. Dont get me wrong, they still do rust / corrode but not within 18 mths of leaving the factory. 

 

So comparing apples to apples per se are we getting a better product from China compared to European built vehicles?? In my eyes they are not there yet. HOWEVER when they can design cars / vehicles in half the time shows what can be done. They do love to copy / clone as has been proven mutiple times with some absolute shockers, but again with their industrial capability that is not as mired in bureauracy as our European counterparts and us proves what can be done.

 

Is this the decline of VW?? i highly doubt it BUT it has to be a wake up call for all major manufacturers. Lets see how things play out. 

[Ethel]

There were 3/4 million new cars sold in the UK in 1960 - 34 million sold in China last year, that's over a third of the global market.

[Java_Green]

There are all sorts of car makers in China and especially for there own market (not that many regulations yet).
Considering corrosion, those I been working for practiced rotodip, spot welds in glued flanges (same as most European OEMs) and used steel following the same standards as many OEMs use in Europe.
Copying things, I would say was to a large extent an era belonging to the last century. Nowadays they are well educated, have disassembled enough to understand the background and function of things. Add to this there extreme competition for the engineering jobs, zero assurance for keeping them (may need to leave the same day based on a boss dislike) and hardly no regulations considering working hours. Cars, automotive industry and ICEs is (and has been for decades) my life 24-7 but I could not see how Eorope OEMs will be able to compete in near future, so I have stepped aside work wise.

[Ethel]

I have a VW run about, it's generally been very good on the tin worm. But the bolt on bits of undercarriage aren't anything like as well protected as the bodyshell. Curiously. it's the spot welds on that which have shown the first signs of rust. Not in the seams, the little circles where the electrodes made contact. Altered metallurgy or just pre-paint coating burnt off 

[Java_Green]

I have a VW run about, it's generally been very good on the tin worm. But the bolt on bits of undercarriage aren't anything like as well protected as the bodyshell. Curiously. it's the spot welds on that which have shown the first signs of rust. Not in the seams, the little circles where the electrodes made contact. Altered metallurgy or just pre-paint coating burnt off 

The chassis components is another chapter.... In the "good old days", these parts were to a large extent casted parts. At first, in cast iron. Later, in aluminium. Cost is nowadays the number one priority (will come back to this...). As so, sheet metal structures is the way to go. Many of these sheet metal parts are powder coated (cheap and fast). I.e. no primer or base coat. Just powder coated. This works fine as long as the coat is completely sealed. With luck, it stays sealed during assembly (not likely as bolts are tightened) and to car delivery. On the road these underbody components are very prone to stone chipping which often brakes the sealed coating. I have seen cars at first dealer delivery with started corrosion on these parts. Most certainly on 3 year old cars with 30000 miles on the clock. These parts are seldom included in any guarantees and last surprisingly long before failure (in most cases the MOT drives its hammer through it, and the car fails MOT).

As European OEMs loose “ground” and market shares to China brands with more than 2 times the R&D cost and time to market, it makes common sense that they need to do something. From my point of view, most likely there are short cuts taken to compensate.

When it comes to Ethels specific question. I would say that the powder coating seal is broken and the underlying metal is exposed to nature. Heat Affected Zones (HAZ) – typically welds change metallurgy and are more prone to corrode (place a bare welded sheet metal structure outside and see where is starts to corrode)

[Ethel]

I meant spot welds on the body, in wheel arches. Near perfect little circles it was curious as I'd not seen it on Minis & other wagons - probably because they were lost in a sea of rust.

[Java_Green]

Those rings are most likely signs of spot welds. These are done before the flange glue is fully cured and before the rotodip. OEMs have standards for min flange width and pitch as well as min distance to edge. All to secure that the HAZ is sealed from atmosphere. If the HAZ is not sealed from atmosphere (misspositioned spot weld or due to other reason) it is exposed....